J Cancer 2020; 11(18):5527-5535. doi:10.7150/jca.46563

Research Paper

A Predictive Nomogram for Early Death of Metastatic Gastric Cancer: A Retrospective Study in the SEER Database and China

Ying Zhu1, Xiongfeng Fang2, Lanqing Wang1, Tao Zhang1✉, Dandan Yu1✉

1. Cancer Center, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430022, China.
2. School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China.

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Citation:
Zhu Y, Fang X, Wang L, Zhang T, Yu D. A Predictive Nomogram for Early Death of Metastatic Gastric Cancer: A Retrospective Study in the SEER Database and China. J Cancer 2020; 11(18):5527-5535. doi:10.7150/jca.46563. Available from https://www.jcancer.org/v11p5527.htm

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Abstract

Background: To identify associated risk factors and develop a predictive nomogram for the early death of metastatic gastric cancer patients.

Methods: A total of 4575 patients in the SEER cohort and 220 patients in the Chinese cohort diagnosed with metastatic gastric cancer in our Cancer Center were obtained. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify independent risk variables for early death. A predictive nomogram and a web-based probability calculator were developed and then validated by receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve and calibration plot in a Chinese cohort.

Results: Eight independent variables, including race, grade, surgery, chemotherapy, and metastases of bone, brain, liver, lung were recognized by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models for identifying independent risk variables of early death about metastatic gastric cancer patients. By comprising these variables, a predictive nomogram and a web-based probability calculator were constructed in the SEER cohort. Then, it could be validated well in the Chinese cohort by receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve and calibration plot.

Conclusion: Using this nomogram model provided an insightful and applicable tool to distinguish the early death of metastatic gastric cancer patients.

Keywords: Stomach neoplasm, Stage IV, SEER, Early death, Nomogram