Establishing the prediction models for recurrence and progression of T1G3 bladder urothelial carcinoma

Chen, Song; Lu, Mengxin; Peng, Tianchen; Wang, Yejinpeng; Liu, Xuefeng; Xiao, Yu; Wang, Xinghuan

doi:10.7150/jca.35866



International Journal of Biological Sciences

International Journal of Medical Sciences

Theranostics

Journal of Genomics

Nanotheranostics

Global reach, higher impact

Full Text | PDF

J Cancer 2019; 10(24):5891-5902. doi:10.7150/jca.35866 This issue Cite

Research Paper

Establishing the prediction models for recurrence and progression of T1G3 bladder urothelial carcinoma

Song Chen^1,2,3, Mengxin Lu^1,2,3, Tianchen Peng^1,4, Yejinpeng Wang^1,4, Xuefeng Liu⁵, Yu Xiao^1,2,3,6✉, Xinghuan Wang^1,2,3,4✉

1. Department of Urology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
2. Human Genetics Resource Preservation Center of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
3. Human Genetics Resource Preservation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan, 430071 China
4. Medical Research Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China
5. Department of Pathology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University Medical School, Washington DC, USA
6. Department of Biological Repositories, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China

Citation:

Chen S, Lu M, Peng T, Wang Y, Liu X, Xiao Y, Wang X. Establishing the prediction models for recurrence and progression of T1G3 bladder urothelial carcinoma. J Cancer 2019; 10(24):5891-5902. doi:10.7150/jca.35866. https://www.jcancer.org/v10p5891.htm

Other styles

Abstract

We aim to determine clinical recurrence and progression risk factors of T1G3 bladder cancer (BCa), and to establish recurrence and progression prediction models. 5-year follow-up records of 106 T1G3 BCa patients from January 2012 to December 2016 were analyzed for recurrence and progression. Two-sample T-test, Chi-square test, Mann-Whitney test, Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the independent risk factors. Effective prognostic nomograms were established to provide individualized prediction, and the calibration curves were founded to evaluate the agreements of the predicted probability with the actual observed probability. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated for the recurrence and progression prediction models. The stability of prediction models was validated with an external cohort included 61 T1G3 BCa patients. Of the 106 T1G3 BCa patients, 77 were males (72.6%) and 29 were females (27.4%), with median age 70 years. Within 5 years, recurrence was identified in 67 cases (63.2%), and progression was identified in 31 cases (29.2%). The results showed that large size of tumor, multifocal tumors, recrudescent tumor, non-BCG perfusion therapy were the independent risk factors for recurrence, and large size of tumor, multifocal tumors, recrudescent tumor, concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS) were the independent risk factors for progression. However, no evidence shown that tumor location or operative method was independent risk factors for recurrence and progression. Based on the results of Cox regression analyses, the independent risk factors were used to establish the prediction nomograms to calculate the recurrence and progression probability of each T1G3 BCa patient. Calibration curves, ROC curves and external validation displayed that the nomograms had great value of prediction.

Keywords: Prediction models, recurrence, progression, T1G3, bladder urothelial carcinoma

Citation styles

APA

Chen, S., Lu, M., Peng, T., Wang, Y., Liu, X., Xiao, Y., Wang, X. (2019). Establishing the prediction models for recurrence and progression of T1G3 bladder urothelial carcinoma. Journal of Cancer, 10(24), 5891-5902. https://doi.org/10.7150/jca.35866.

ACS

Chen, S.; Lu, M.; Peng, T.; Wang, Y.; Liu, X.; Xiao, Y.; Wang, X. Establishing the prediction models for recurrence and progression of T1G3 bladder urothelial carcinoma. J. Cancer 2019, 10 (24), 5891-5902. DOI: 10.7150/jca.35866.

NLM

CSE

Chen S, Lu M, Peng T, Wang Y, Liu X, Xiao Y, Wang X. 2019. Establishing the prediction models for recurrence and progression of T1G3 bladder urothelial carcinoma. J Cancer. 10(24):5891-5902.

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). See http://ivyspring.com/terms for full terms and conditions.