J Cancer 2019; 10(11):2443-2449. doi:10.7150/jca.30386

Research Paper

A Nomogram Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 Breast Cancer based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program

Ya-Xin Zhao1,2*, Yi-Rong Liu1,2*, Shao Xie2✉, Yi-Zhou Jiang1,2✉, Zhi-Ming Shao1,2,3✉

1. Department of Breast Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center; Cancer Institute, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, 270 Dong-An Road, Shanghai 200032, People's Republic of China
2. Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, P. R. China
3. Institutes of Biomedical Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, P. R. China
*Ya-Xin Zhao and Yi-Rong Liu contributed equally to this work.

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Zhao YX, Liu YR, Xie S, Jiang YZ, Shao ZM. A Nomogram Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in T1 Breast Cancer based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. J Cancer 2019; 10(11):2443-2449. doi:10.7150/jca.30386. Available from http://www.jcancer.org/v10p2443.htm

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Background: Patients with early stage breast cancer with lymph nodes metastasis were proven to have more aggressive biologically phenotypes. This study aimed to build a nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis in patients with T1 breast cancer.

Methods: We identified female patients with T1 breast cancer diagnosed between 2010 and 2014 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. The patients were randomized into training and validation sets. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were carried out to assess the relationships between lymph node metastasis and clinicopathological characteristics. A nomogram was developed and validated by a calibration curve and receptor operating characteristic curve analysis.

Result: Age, race, tumour size, tumour primary site, pathological grade, oestrogen receptor (ER) status, progesterone receptor (PR) status and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status were independent predictive factors of positive lymph node metastasis in T1 breast cancer. Increasing age, tumour size and pathological grade were positively correlated with the risk of lymph node metastasis. We developed a nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis and further validated it in a validation set, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.733 and 0.741 in the training and validation sets, respectively.

Conclusions: A better understanding of the clinicopathological characteristics of T1 breast cancer patients might important for assessing their lymph node status. The nomogram developed here, if further validated in other large cohorts, might provide additional information regarding lymph node metastasis. Together with sentinel lymph node biopsy, this nomogram can help comprehensively predict lymph node metastasis.

Keywords: T1 breast cancer, lymph nodes metastasis, predictive nomogram