J Cancer 2018; 9(12):2098-2106. doi:10.7150/jca.24445

Research Paper

A Nomogram for Distinction and Potential Prediction of Liver Metastasis in Breast Cancer Patients

Zhenhai Lin1*, Shican Yan2*, Jieyun Zhang 3*, Qi Pan1✉

1. Department of Hepatic Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, P.R. China
2. Department of General Surgery, Huashan Hospital; Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200040, P.R. China
3. Department of Medical Oncology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, P.R. China
*These authors contributed equally to this work.

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Citation:
Lin Z, Yan S, Zhang J, Pan Q. A Nomogram for Distinction and Potential Prediction of Liver Metastasis in Breast Cancer Patients. J Cancer 2018; 9(12):2098-2106. doi:10.7150/jca.24445. Available from http://www.jcancer.org/v09p2098.htm

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Abstract

Liver metastasis from breast cancer has poor prognosis. We aimed at developing a reliable tool for making a distinction and prediction for liver metastasis in breast cancer patients, thus helping clinical diagnosis and treatment. In this study, totally 6238 patients from SEER database with known distant metastasis status and clinicopathologic variables were enrolled and divided randomly into training and validating groups. Logistic regression was used to screen variables and a nomogram was constructed. After multivariate logistic regression, sex, histology type, N stage, grade, age, ER, PR, HER2 status as significant variables for constructing the nomogram. The nomogram for distinguishing and predicting liver metastasis in breast cancer passed the calibration and validation steps and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the training set and the validation set were 0.6602 and 0.6511 respectively. Our nomogram is a reliable and robust tool for the distinction and prediction of liver metastasis in breast cancer patients, thus helping better choose medical examinations and optimize therapeutic regimen under the cooperation among medical oncologists and surgeons.

Keywords: liver metastasis, breast cancer, nomogram, SEER